The first half of 2025 followed a fascinating arc for Tahoe – Truckee real estate. The year began with a tremendous surge of premium activity, punctuated by record sales in many sought-after resort communities. This statistical impact of these transactions was concentrated by the absence of activity in lesser priced inventory based upon stubbornly high interest rates and the continuation of a long-held period of constrained supply. As a result, most metrics, other than transaction count, showed exceptional gains through the first quarter.

Among these premium sales were a $27,500,000 West Shore lakefront estate, the typical volume of Martis Camp sales including two greater than $10,000,000, two purchases greater than $6,000,000 in Schaffer’s Mill, and record transactions for property types in Northstar Mountainside and Sugar Bowl.

The second quarter saw a continuation of premium activity but a return to the mean with entry and mid-tier activity balancing out the portfolio of sales. By midyear, average and median home prices reached all-time highs of $1,700,000 and $1,154,000—up 5% and 6% year-over-year, respectively.

That said, these averages don’t tell the full story. Some segments remain quieter, and the influence of affordability is clear. Sales under $1 million now account for just 44% of all regional transactions. Meanwhile, sales over $2 million have grown from 18% to 23%, and those above $5 million from 3.63% to 4.67%. In essence, properties where buyers are less impacted by interest rates continue to perform well, while those more sensitive to monthly costs are seeing increased caution and longer decision timelines.

The second half of any given year typically outperforms the first six months by nearly double. This trend has remained consistent in both strong and weak markets, as the snow-heavy winter months limit property access and inventory—factors that ease with longer days and more predictable summer weather. In fact, the apex of transaction activity occurs September and October following summer property tours and fall offers.

Heading into H2, 2025 listing inventory has risen to levels not seen since pre-2020 as many of last year’s unsuccessful sellers return to market alongside the normal wave of summer listings. If momentum is to continue into this busier season, many sellers are going to be in a position of greater flexibility in negotiations as they are faced with supply levels teetering slightly in the buyer’s favor. The fact of so many sellers sitting on 3% - 4% mortgages has rendered them unmotivated in recent years; thus holding prices steady.

In the absence of economic conditions that dramatically favor neither buyers nor sellers, gains and losses in value are likely to be modest around the edges for the rest of 2025. As with any market condition, the stories afforded by time spent in the mountains will outnumber the tale of how a property was purchased.

Wishing you a joyful summer in Lake Tahoe.

July 2025 Tahoe-Truckee Real Estate Market Update

June 2025 Tahoe-Truckee Real Estate Market Update